Crossfit Open 2014: Predicting 14.4

With three weeks down in the 2014 Crossfit Open and the live announcement for 14.4 less than 24
hours away, I'm quickly running out of chances to get even close on one of these predictions. As the weeks go by though the list of exercises that Crossfit HQ has to choose from is dwindling so I'm liking my chances this week. First let's recap some of our basic assumptions:

Crossfit Open WOD 14.4: Josh Bridges vs. Scott Panchik

The live announcement of the 2014 Crossfit Open 14.4 is creeping up on us again and tomorrow night Dave Castro will pull the curtain back and shock us all for the fourth week in a row. We’ve done pretty terrible on our weekly predictions so far, but that’s to be expected and I think it’s pretty clear that HQ wanted to break free of the mold they’d developed over the past two years. We’ll still take another shot at predicting 14.4 later on this evening or tomorrow morning, but first let’s talk about predicting something we have been better at so far. With three live throw downs in the books, we’ve correctly predicted the winner on twice with only the lovely Talayna Fortunato spoiling our fun on 14.2. This week HQ offers up another star studded pair in which they’ve combined for four Games appearances and of those four appearances, the worst overall finish was a 7th place. We’re of course talking about matchup between Josh Bridges and Scott Panchik.

Tale of the tape
Josh Bridges is 30 years old and reports himself as 5’5 and 165 pounds. Bridges is a two times Games veteran and a podium finisher in the 2011 Games. So far his CF resume looks like a donut. He broke out in 2011, finishing second at the Games and looking like the biggest competition for Rich in upcoming years. Then active deployment and a severe knee injury completely wiped out his 2012 season. He returned in 2013 to so much fanfare that an eventual 7th place finish at the Games felt like a letdown. Bridges cruised through the 2013 Open collecting four top-10 finishes and winning 13.5 en route to a third overall finish in the world, behind only Froning and Mikko. He continued to dominate at Regionals winning four of eight events and finishing in the top-4 in all but one event. At the Games, many expected Bridges to be Froning’s biggest competition but it was a somewhat mixed bag of results. On the positive side, he won just as many events as Khalipa and Froning (3) and logged two more top-3 finishes (pool event and Cinco 2). On the negative side though outside of those four events, his average finish was 28th place with three finishes of 36th or worse.

Scott Panchik is 26 years old and lists himself as 5’9 and 190 pounds. Panchik is only entering his third year of CF competition but there hasn’t been much of a learning curve. He burst onto the scene by winning 12.1 (7 min of burpees) and even an article on the Games site described him as an unknown. He’d go onto to finish 27th in the world in the Open and then place 5th in the stacked Central East Region, behind two previous champions (Froning and Holmberg) so he earned a trip to the Games. Once he got to the Games though, Panchik no longer looked like a rookie. He collected eight top-10 finishes, including a streak of six in a row to close out the weekend, and won the final event, Fran. When the dust settled he was in fourth place, not bad for his first trip the Games. In 2013 he continued to prove he belonged among the big boys, finishing fourth in the world in the Open and then taking second place in the Central East at Regionals. At the Games he got off to a bit of a slow start with two 11th place finishes then a 16th and a 30th,but he again closed out the weekend with an impressive run of five top-10 finishes. In the end he again took fourth overall.

Head to Head
There’s less data here than previous weeks considering Panchik is only entering his third year and Bridges was absent during 2012, so that leaves us with all of 2013 and the three Open WODs so far this year. This almost might be the closest head to head matchup we’ve seen so far in 2014. Of the 27 WODs these two have both completed over that span, Panchik holds a 14-13 advantage over Bridges. Since we’re talking about an Open WOD though it’s worth looking at how they’ve fared in the past eight Open WODs and in those Bridges holds a 5-3 advantage. Panchik’s wins have come in 14.3, 13.1 and 13.2. The first two of those are both WODs that included ‘increasing weights’ so this matchup could very well come down to what kind of workout Castro announces. It would make sense that any workout with heavier weights will favor Panchik, considering he’s got 25 pounds on Bridges, and that any WOD basically mostly on movement will favor Bridges.

Conclusion
Since I obviously don’t know what the workout will be yet, this is really more of a gut feeling that anything else, but I’m going to go with Bridges for two reasons. The first, I don’t think we’ll see heavy weights this week after seeing the heavy deadlifts last week. Secondly, I think Bridges will come into this week feeling like he has something to prove after a somewhat poor showing last week. He only completed 148 reps, good for 1,336th place in the world, dropping him from 2nd overall to 157th in the Open standings. While all of the elite level athletes don’t put much emphasis on the Open WODs, that’s still a disappointing result. His coach, CJ Martin, has addressed the result as well, saying that he was still recovering from a taxing deadlift WOD a few days earlier and ‘played it safe on 14.3.’ That’s a very legit excuse considering Bridges isn’t competing to win the Open, he’s competing to win the Games. Still though, no one is going to enjoy being called out like he was on the CF Games Update Show and I think he’ll have a little something extra when Castro calls out 3,2,1… GO.

Friend or Foe of Crossfit: National Pro Fitness League

If you follow Crossfit, The Sport of Fitness, at any level then you've most likely heard of Tony Budding. Budding was Crossfit's media director for many years and often seen as Dave Castro's right hand man at the Games. That all changed though late last year when Budding left Crossfit to build something of his own. What has resulted is the National Pro Fitness League, a team based version of  the Crossfit Games (my words not his). Here is how Budding describes the league:

2014 Crossfit Open Update: Rich Froning is Dominating

We’re officially past the halfway point of the 2014 Crossfit Open now and in just two short days Dave Castro will again step to the microphone and announce 14.4. We’ll take a look at the live throw down matchup between Scott Panchik and Josh Bridges tomorrow, but today I wanted to pass along some thoughts so far on the Open, mostly concerning how the leaderboards are shaping up.

• First and foremost let me announce that Rich Froning will be crowned the Fittest Man Alive until he decides to no longer compete. I wondered if he’d limp into the Open after flirting with retiring or going “team” in the off season but he’s been absolutely dominant in the first three weeks of the Open. In true Froning form, he hasn’t won a single event but he’s placed fourth, second and eighth. Seriously. With tens of thousands of men competing against him he’s been in the top eight of all three WODs so far. While you might think that’s not particularly impressive for an elite Games level athlete, consider that no other male athlete can even boast two top-10 finishes. Froning’s average finish so far, is 4.7 and no other male or female athlete has an average lower than 11 (Jason Khalipa and Samantha Briggs both have an average finish of 11).
• On the women’s side, (surprise, surprise) Samantha Briggs holds a healthy lead with an event win in week one and a fifth place finish in week three. She’s one of only two females (Camille Leblanc-Bazinet being the other) with two top-10 finishes. Sitting in third place overall right now though is Annie Thorisdottir who’s on the rebound track this year after sitting out last year with a back injury. She finished 35th overall in 14.3 and perhaps more importantly reported no issues after the deadlift intensive WOD.
• In an eerie coincidence both of this year’s redemption stories, Josh Golden and Danielle Sidell, sit at 16th overall on their respective leaderboards. Sidell announced herself in a big on 14.3 by winning the week and destroying the box jumps that got her booted from the competition last year. Despite posting such a high score though, Sidell wrote her blog (another good read if you’re wondering) about some minor missteps that cost her a couple extra reps:

  First, I stopped jumping for a split second after 10 reps and headed back to the deadlifts, wasn’t thinking! Then, I got my jumps mixed up and totally missed the box, haha, ugh those two things are going to haunt me for a while. I am never 100% satisfied with the end result of my workouts. I always look back and think shoulda/woulda/coulda… I know I shouldn’t, but I can’t help myself.

• One note on the negative side, two time Games athlete Daniel Tyminski is currently 716th in the North East region after injuring his shoulder during 14.2. He rebounded nicely on 14.3 but the damage has already been done. It’ll be interesting to see if Tyminski resurfaces as a member of his boxes’ team or if he’s one of the “celebrity demonstrators” that HQ has used the past couple of years at the Games. I didn’t see any other notable Games’ athletes who are currently in danger of missing a trip to regionals though.

Open WOD 14.4 is right around the corner so stay tuned the next two days as we'll take a look at the live throw down matchup and take a blind stab in the dark at guessing the WOD.

Crossfit Open 14.3: Back to Basics

Dave Castro dropped the announcement of 14.3 on us tonight and for the first time in the 2014 Crossfit Open, you won't read any complaints from this lowly blogger. This is an inclusive, yet increasingly challenging WOD, and it'll challenge the beginner, intermediate and advanced athlete. This is, at least in my opinion, exactly what the Open should be about. These type of WODs are why the Open has grown from 26,000 people to over 200,000 people in just four years.

Crossfit Open 2014: Predicting 14.3

Tonight Dave Castro will grab the microphone and shock us all with a WOD we never saw coming, but just for grins, we’re back this week trying to predict what Castro will pull out of his hat. I was incredibly wrong again last week (and next week I’ll write this same sentence again), although I was right that burpees wouldn’t be involved. I’ll wear that as a badge of honor for sure and I’m definitely going to continue with my theory based on mainsite programming. With that assumption and many more, here’s what I’m assuming going into 14.3:

• We won’t see double unders, snatches, overhead squats or chest to bar pull-ups. That’s a given, we’re done with those movements for the remainder of the 2014 Open. That’s leaves us with these movements as available options thrusters, clean and jerks, burpees, toes-to-bar, box jumps, muscle-ups, wall balls, deadlifts and push-ups.
• The mainsite workouts of the past couple days have included push-ups a couple days ago and heavy push presses yesterday. So I’m assuming we won’t see push-ups or anything heavy overhead in 14.3. The overheads might be a stretch but I've got to rule out some options one way or another.
• I also thought that they might stay away from anything like toes to bar or muscle-ups because so many people tore up their hands on 14.2, but after looking back at previous years, I’m not so sure. In both 2011 and 2012, they had back to back WODs with toes to bar and then chest to bar pull-ups. Granted the order would be switched this year but at best this is probably a flaky assumption (still going with it though).

If these three assumptions can be trusted (which of course they can't), that leaves us with burpees, box jumps, muscle-ups, wall balls, deadlifts and cleans. I also think we'll see a longer WOD this week and I still think we see some form of triplet. I thought the same thing last week, but previous Opens have each included multiple triplets, so they've got to surface at some point. So with all that being said, here's this week's prediction:

17 minute AMRAP
Two rounds of DT at 115/75
20 Bar facing burpees
Two rounds of DT at 135/95
20 Bar facing burpees
Two rounds of DT at 155/115
20 Bar facing burpees
Two rounds of DT at 175/135
20 Bar facing burpees
Two rounds of DT at 195/155
20 Bar facing burpees
AMRAP rounds of DT at 215/175
A round of DT is 12 deadlifts, 9 hang cleans and 6 push presses

Now you may be wondering why several elements of that WOD conflict with my assumptions above (namely the overhead portion and the triplet), but it's a guess and I figured since I'm throwing darts blindfolded it might as well be a WOD that I'd like. I actually did a WOD similar to this the other day and it was a real beat down. This would also be a creative way of adding a strength portion while still being very inclusive. I assume almost every athlete could make it to at least the hang clean portion of the second set of DT. They could go one step further as well and allow full cleans instead of just hang cleans. Anyone else want to take a shot at guessing?

Crossfit Open WOD 14.3: Stacie Tovar vs Alessandra Pichelli

The 2014 Crossfit Games Open is nearing the halfway point and 14.2 is officially in our rearview mirror. With two weeks in the books, the leaderboards are starting to take shape and they’re filled with names we’re all very familiar with. On the women’s side the top 25 is populated with stars like Camille, Webb, Letendre, Briggs, Thorisdottir and Horrell and the men’s side is arguably even more top heavy with Froning, Bridges, Smith, Khalipa, Panchik, Bailey, Holmberg, Forte, Golden and Maddox. While I personally may have some qualms about the programming so far, the cream is certainly rising to the top and ultimately that’s the main goal of the Open. The live announcement of 14.3 is right around the corner and HQ announced earlier this week that the throw down will pit long time Games veteran Stacie Tovar against last year’s 4th place Games’ finisher Alessandra Pichelli. This should be a great matchup regardless of what Dave Castro pulls out of his hat tomorrow night. Let’s take a look at these two ladies: