Predicting Crossfit Games Open WOD 14.2

Its prediction time again as Dave Castro is set to announce the Crossfit Games Open WOD 14.2 this evening. Last week I took a huge swing and miss as I put too much faith in pictorial evidence and Castro zigged when I fully expected him to zag. I hinted a couple days ago that I had a new theory I was working on though and now it’s time to take it for a test drive. First let’s go over some basic assumptions:

• I assume we can completely remove double unders and snatches from the available movements for 14.2. I think double unders are totally gone for the remainder of the Open. Snatches may resurface in later weeks but not for 14.2.
• I’m also assuming that clean and jerks will not show up in 14.2 because so many people used them as a way to break up the snatches. Clean and jerks will definitely show up later in the Open but I don’t think we’ll see them this week.

Sadly those are the only two assumptions with which I have any confidence. That does eliminate three movements though and if we take a look at the remaining movements that have been used in previous Opens, we’re left with thrusters, burpee, toes-to-bar, chest to bar pull ups, box jumps, muscle-ups, wall balls, deadlifts, push-ups and overhead squats. Now remember that theory I was working on…..it’s basically centered on what the “mainsite” programs leading up to the Open announcement. Going back to the first WOD of last year, the mainsite has at least somewhat avoided the movements that will be in each Open WOD in the days leading up to the announcement. For example as of the night of the announcement of 14.1, the closest the mainsite had gotten to double unders or snatches was a WOD with triple unders 11 days prior. Going back to 13.5 last year (thruster and C2B), it had been four days since they’d programmed either of those movements. Looking back at 13.1 (snatches and burpees), neither of those movements had been touched in the previous week. Now this certainly isn’t a fool proof theory, but when grasping at straws is all you’ve got, you gotta roll with what’s available. So I’ve been keeping an eye on the mainsite this week hoping it would eliminate several more eligible movements and I didn’t have a single ray of hope until last night. That’s when they posted a WOD that included 125 burpees!! That means if my theory holds true, we can eliminate burpees from our list as well, meaning we’re left with: thrusters, toes-to-bar, chest to bar pull ups, box jumps, muscle-ups, wall balls, deadlifts, push-ups and overhead squats.

As we continue to whittle down our list, let me add one more assumption. Every year so far HQ has ended the Open with some form of thruster and C2B pull up WOD. While I don’t know if we’ll get another repeat like that for 14.5, I don’t think we’re going to see that pairing of movements this early in the Open. Removing those two movements gets us down to seven options (assuming they don’t add something like kettlebell swings) and since every Open has had two triplet WODs (including triplets as the second WOD in 2011 and 2013), I'm calling a triplet this week. With all those assumptions, guesses and predictions in the pot, stirred, shaken and spiced up, here’s what we’re going with:

18 minutes AMRAP
9 deadlifts (155/100)
12 toes to bar
15 wall balls

I’d like to say I’m feeling confident about this one but, let’s be real, I felt confident last week and where did that get me? I might as well have pulled these numbers out of a hopper, but where's the fun in that? What are your predictions for 14.2??