Crossfit Open WOD 14.4: Josh Bridges vs. Scott Panchik

The live announcement of the 2014 Crossfit Open 14.4 is creeping up on us again and tomorrow night Dave Castro will pull the curtain back and shock us all for the fourth week in a row. We’ve done pretty terrible on our weekly predictions so far, but that’s to be expected and I think it’s pretty clear that HQ wanted to break free of the mold they’d developed over the past two years. We’ll still take another shot at predicting 14.4 later on this evening or tomorrow morning, but first let’s talk about predicting something we have been better at so far. With three live throw downs in the books, we’ve correctly predicted the winner on twice with only the lovely Talayna Fortunato spoiling our fun on 14.2. This week HQ offers up another star studded pair in which they’ve combined for four Games appearances and of those four appearances, the worst overall finish was a 7th place. We’re of course talking about matchup between Josh Bridges and Scott Panchik.

Tale of the tape
Josh Bridges is 30 years old and reports himself as 5’5 and 165 pounds. Bridges is a two times Games veteran and a podium finisher in the 2011 Games. So far his CF resume looks like a donut. He broke out in 2011, finishing second at the Games and looking like the biggest competition for Rich in upcoming years. Then active deployment and a severe knee injury completely wiped out his 2012 season. He returned in 2013 to so much fanfare that an eventual 7th place finish at the Games felt like a letdown. Bridges cruised through the 2013 Open collecting four top-10 finishes and winning 13.5 en route to a third overall finish in the world, behind only Froning and Mikko. He continued to dominate at Regionals winning four of eight events and finishing in the top-4 in all but one event. At the Games, many expected Bridges to be Froning’s biggest competition but it was a somewhat mixed bag of results. On the positive side, he won just as many events as Khalipa and Froning (3) and logged two more top-3 finishes (pool event and Cinco 2). On the negative side though outside of those four events, his average finish was 28th place with three finishes of 36th or worse.

Scott Panchik is 26 years old and lists himself as 5’9 and 190 pounds. Panchik is only entering his third year of CF competition but there hasn’t been much of a learning curve. He burst onto the scene by winning 12.1 (7 min of burpees) and even an article on the Games site described him as an unknown. He’d go onto to finish 27th in the world in the Open and then place 5th in the stacked Central East Region, behind two previous champions (Froning and Holmberg) so he earned a trip to the Games. Once he got to the Games though, Panchik no longer looked like a rookie. He collected eight top-10 finishes, including a streak of six in a row to close out the weekend, and won the final event, Fran. When the dust settled he was in fourth place, not bad for his first trip the Games. In 2013 he continued to prove he belonged among the big boys, finishing fourth in the world in the Open and then taking second place in the Central East at Regionals. At the Games he got off to a bit of a slow start with two 11th place finishes then a 16th and a 30th,but he again closed out the weekend with an impressive run of five top-10 finishes. In the end he again took fourth overall.

Head to Head
There’s less data here than previous weeks considering Panchik is only entering his third year and Bridges was absent during 2012, so that leaves us with all of 2013 and the three Open WODs so far this year. This almost might be the closest head to head matchup we’ve seen so far in 2014. Of the 27 WODs these two have both completed over that span, Panchik holds a 14-13 advantage over Bridges. Since we’re talking about an Open WOD though it’s worth looking at how they’ve fared in the past eight Open WODs and in those Bridges holds a 5-3 advantage. Panchik’s wins have come in 14.3, 13.1 and 13.2. The first two of those are both WODs that included ‘increasing weights’ so this matchup could very well come down to what kind of workout Castro announces. It would make sense that any workout with heavier weights will favor Panchik, considering he’s got 25 pounds on Bridges, and that any WOD basically mostly on movement will favor Bridges.

Conclusion
Since I obviously don’t know what the workout will be yet, this is really more of a gut feeling that anything else, but I’m going to go with Bridges for two reasons. The first, I don’t think we’ll see heavy weights this week after seeing the heavy deadlifts last week. Secondly, I think Bridges will come into this week feeling like he has something to prove after a somewhat poor showing last week. He only completed 148 reps, good for 1,336th place in the world, dropping him from 2nd overall to 157th in the Open standings. While all of the elite level athletes don’t put much emphasis on the Open WODs, that’s still a disappointing result. His coach, CJ Martin, has addressed the result as well, saying that he was still recovering from a taxing deadlift WOD a few days earlier and ‘played it safe on 14.3.’ That’s a very legit excuse considering Bridges isn’t competing to win the Open, he’s competing to win the Games. Still though, no one is going to enjoy being called out like he was on the CF Games Update Show and I think he’ll have a little something extra when Castro calls out 3,2,1… GO.